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Philip Morris' Valuation Looks Overstretched: Time to Hit Pause?

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Key Takeaways

  • Philip Morris trades at 22.89x forward P/E, well above its five-year average and industry peers.
  • PM's valuation concerns arise despite solid RRP momentum from the IQOS platform.
  • Near-term risks include FX headwinds, regulation and pressure on cash flow from reinvestments.

Philip Morris International Inc. (PM - Free Report) has impressed investors with its bold pivot toward reduced-risk products (RRPs), led by the success of its IQOS platform. This transformation has positioned the company as a future-ready tobacco leader. However, after a strong rally in the first half of 2025, concerns around its valuation are growing.

Philip Morris currently trades at a forward P/E ratio of 22.89x — significantly above both its five-year average of 15.34x and the broader tobacco industry’s current ratio of 15.36. This premium valuation reflects strong bullish sentiment around its smoke-free future, but it also suggests much of that optimism is already priced in. With a Value Score of C, the stock appears less attractive from a pure valuation standpoint.

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While Philip Morris’ long-term vision remains promising, near-term risks persist. Revenue growth is steady but not spectacular, and the company faces currency headwinds, regulatory tightening and geopolitical uncertainty in key international markets. Its heavy reinvestment in next-generation products may strain cash flow and limit dividend growth in the near term.

That said, Philip Morris isn’t necessarily a “sell.” The company’s fundamentals remain solid, and its leadership in the RRP space is undeniable. However, at current levels, it may be wise for investors to wait for a more favorable entry point.

Other Tobacco Stocks to Watch While You Wait on PM

If Philip Morris feels overvalued, investors may find better value in Altria Group, Inc. (MO - Free Report) and British American Tobacco p.l.c. (BTI - Free Report) — both trading at attractive valuations in 2025.

Altria, with a P/E ratio of 10.76x, continues to demonstrate resilience amid declining cigarette volumes, thanks to strong pricing power and a growing focus on smoke-free products. Altria’s “Optimize & Accelerate” initiative is designed to modernize operations and accelerate its transition to a smoke-free future, backed by solid dividends and reliable cash flow.

British American Tobacco, trading at 10.33x, is also evolving. With its goal to build a smokeless world, British American Tobacco is investing heavily in reduced-risk products. It aims to reach 50 million users of non-combustible products by 2030 and derive 50% of revenues from them by 2035.

PM’s Price Performance & Estimates

Shares of Philip Morris have rallied 50.1% year to date compared with the industry’s growth of 37.6%.

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The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PM’s 2025 earnings implies year-over-year growth of 13.7%, whereas its 2026 earnings estimate suggests a year-over-year uptick of 11.7%. The estimates for 2025 and 2026 have remained unchanged in the past 30 days.

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PM stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here.


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Altria Group, Inc. (MO) - free report >>

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